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#inflation

Everything tagged inflation, across every stream.

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Fed holds rates at 3.75%-4% with two dissents for a hike; next day, GDP grows 3.4% and inflation runs at 3.6%

CNBC explains the dissents and the December outlook, and the BEA release gives the growth figures straight from the source.

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate in a 3.75% to 4% range on October 28, after raising it a quarter point in September. Its statement said "Inflation remains elevated" and that more information will help it decide its next step. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike; CNBC reports it was Cook's first dissent since joining the Fed in 2022. Futures pricing points to a strong possibility of a hike in December.

On October 29 the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated that real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, up from 2.2% in the second, driven by investment, consumer spending and government spending. The PCE price index rose 0.5% in September, for 3.6% annual inflation; core PCE was 3.1%. Weekly jobless claims fell to 194,000.

Rabbit Holes 2
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Halloween candy costs 71% more than five years ago, even though cocoa has come down

Explains why chocolate prices lag falling cocoa (forward contracts) and how to stretch a candy budget, with BLS numbers.

A 100-piece bag of assorted Halloween candy now averages $16.96, up from $9.91 five years ago, a 71% rise, according to a 2026 candy price study cited by Farmers' Almanac.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show candy and gum prices up 7.7% in the 12 months to September 2026, against 3.7% for consumer prices overall. Poor harvests and crop disease in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana drove cocoa to extraordinary highs in 2024 and 2025. Wholesale cocoa has since fallen sharply, but the article explains that big manufacturers buy cocoa on contracts set months ahead, so some of this year's Halloween chocolate was made with pricier beans; sugar, packaging, transport and labor costs also feed in.

Its tips: compare the price per piece rather than per bag, mix chocolate with other treats, check store apps, and buy for the number of trick-or-treaters you actually expect.

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Analysis: UK diets lighter on meat and chocolate saw 40% less food inflation as climate hits harvests

A think tank's numbers on which foods have been pushed up by extreme weather, and by how much.

A balanced UK food basket saw prices rise 2.7% in 2025 versus 4.5% for the standard basket, about 40% less inflation, according to new analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), a UK climate think tank. It estimates a household spending about £70 a week in 2021 would have saved around £520 cumulatively by August 2026.

Chocolate was the single largest contributor to the gap (32%), and meat a further 22%, with beef and lamb alone nearly 15%; both meats averaged around 10% annual inflation over two years. ECIU senior economist Chris Jaccarini links the sharpest rises to extreme weather, from cocoa farms in West Africa to British livestock, and says a balanced diet offers "some protection" but is "not a silver bullet."

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September CPI runs hot at 3.7%, and rate-hike bets jump

The inflation print that moved yields, the dollar and Fed expectations on Wednesday.

US consumer prices rose 3.7% year over year in September, up from 3.4% in August and above the 3.6% economists expected, the Labor Department said. Markets priced a higher chance of a Fed rate increase later this month: expectations of a quarter-point hike nearly doubled to 44% on the CME FedWatch tool. Treasury yields and the dollar rose, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq opened lower. The day before, tech shares had fallen on worries about Chinese progress in AI chips and a Broadcom executive's comparison of AI buying to gambling.

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U.S. PCE inflation 3.4% in August as consumer spending jumps 0.9%

The official release, with the tables behind the headlines.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported August PCE prices up 0.3% on the month and 3.4% on the year (core: 0.2% and 3.0%). Consumer spending rose 0.9%, personal income 0.2%, and the saving rate was 4.1%.

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