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September CPI runs hot at 3.7%, and rate-hike bets jump

The inflation print that moved yields, the dollar and Fed expectations on Wednesday.

US consumer prices rose 3.7% year over year in September, up from 3.4% in August and above the 3.6% economists expected, the Labor Department said. Markets priced a higher chance of a Fed rate increase later this month: expectations of a quarter-point hike nearly doubled to 44% on the CME FedWatch tool. Treasury yields and the dollar rose, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq opened lower. The day before, tech shares had fallen on worries about Chinese progress in AI chips and a Broadcom executive's comparison of AI buying to gambling.

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