#federal-reserve

Job openings rose by 333,000 in September to 7.52 million, well above the 7.15 million economists expected, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday, November 3. Quits rose to 3.36 million, the most since March 2025, and there were about 1.05 openings for every unemployed worker.

On Wednesday, payroll processor ADP said private employers added 86,000 jobs in October, the same as September's revised figure and above the 75,000 expected. Professional and business services lost 27,000 jobs; people who changed jobs saw 4.8% annual pay gains.

On Thursday, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin told CNBC he expects the Fed will need to raise rates further, at a gradual pace, saying inflation is 'the most important risk right now' and that AI is pushing some prices up. The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% at its last meeting after a hike in September. The official October payrolls report is due Friday, after this issue's window.

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate in a 3.75% to 4% range on October 28, after raising it a quarter point in September. Its statement said "Inflation remains elevated" and that more information will help it decide its next step. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike; CNBC reports it was Cook's first dissent since joining the Fed in 2022. Futures pricing points to a strong possibility of a hike in December.

On October 29 the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated that real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, up from 2.2% in the second, driven by investment, consumer spending and government spending. The PCE price index rose 0.5% in September, for 3.6% annual inflation; core PCE was 3.1%. Weekly jobless claims fell to 194,000.

US consumer prices rose 3.7% year over year in September, up from 3.4% in August and above the 3.6% economists expected, the Labor Department said. Markets priced a higher chance of a Fed rate increase later this month: expectations of a quarter-point hike nearly doubled to 44% on the CME FedWatch tool. Treasury yields and the dollar rose, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq opened lower. The day before, tech shares had fallen on worries about Chinese progress in AI chips and a Broadcom executive's comparison of AI buying to gambling.