Analysis: UK diets lighter on meat and chocolate saw 40% less food inflation as climate hits harvests
A think tank's numbers on which foods have been pushed up by extreme weather, and by how much.
A balanced UK food basket saw prices rise 2.7% in 2025 versus 4.5% for the standard basket, about 40% less inflation, according to new analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), a UK climate think tank. It estimates a household spending about £70 a week in 2021 would have saved around £520 cumulatively by August 2026.
Chocolate was the single largest contributor to the gap (32%), and meat a further 22%, with beef and lamb alone nearly 15%; both meats averaged around 10% annual inflation over two years. ECIU senior economist Chris Jaccarini links the sharpest rises to extreme weather, from cocoa farms in West Africa to British livestock, and says a balanced diet offers "some protection" but is "not a silver bullet."
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Effects of climate change on agriculture
After exploring Meat- and chocolate-heavy diets hit harder by food inflation as climate extremes bite, for the bigger picture on weather and harvests, see Effects of climate change on agriculture.
Wikipedia's overview of how warming affects crop yields, pests, soils and global food security.
Wikipedia · Swim · 30 min
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