#senate

Democrats will control the Senate in January, CBS News and NBC News project, after the November 3 midterms. As of Thursday, November 5, the party had secured at least 54 seats. NBC lists seven flips: Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Maine, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas. Democrats also held Georgia, New Hampshire and Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed beat former Rep. Mike Rogers and, CBS notes, becomes the first Muslim senator.

Among the upsets: James Talarico beat Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas, the first Democrat Texas has sent to the Senate since 1988 (NBC); Elon Musk spent more than $150 million to boost Paxton, CBS reports. Pastor Adam Hamilton ousted Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas, Troy Jackson defeated Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, and Annie Andrews beat Darline Graham in South Carolina. Republicans held Nebraska (Sen. Pete Ricketts over independent Dan Osborn), Montana and Florida.

The Alaska and Mississippi races were uncalled at the cutoff. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer vowed to "entangle" President Trump "in legislative razor wire" when he defies the law; Majority Leader John Thune said Republicans "will not stand idly by" as Democrats try to unwind their work. Trump told reporters he would "probably" get along with Democrats "unless they want to be destructive, but I have the power of the veto."

The U.S. Senate race in Mississippi was uncalled at the cutoff. By midday Thursday, November 5, Democrat Scott Colom led Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by just over 1,700 votes, CBS reports; CBS rates it a toss-up. At the end of Wednesday's count, WDAM reports, Colom had 464,926 votes (49%) to Hyde-Smith's 463,788 (48.9%).

Secretary of State Michael Watson says about 3,600 mail ballots are outstanding, plus an unknown number of affidavit (provisional) ballots from voters whose eligibility must be confirmed. Mail ballots must arrive within five business days; counties have until November 13 to certify. Mississippi has no recount provision, so the plurality winner takes the seat. Colom's campaign estimates 15,000 affidavit ballots; Magnolia Tribune cites unconfirmed reports of up to 18,000.

The NRSC and Hyde-Smith's campaign asked all counties to separate and preserve affidavit ballots; Colom's campaign called it a "desperate stunt." The DSCC has sent lawyers to monitor the count. A Colom win would make him the first Democrat Mississippi has elected to the Senate since 1982, and its first Black senator since 1881.

On Sunday, November 1, U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason dismissed the Justice Department's suit seeking to block certification of Alaska's Senate race if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan lost to Democrat Mary Peltola. She called the relief "infeasible" because many people had already voted, said the government offered "no workable plan" to investigate ballots for the second candidate, retired teacher Daniel J. Sullivan, while preserving voter secrecy, and wrote that the effort ran counter to the Constitution's grant of election authority to states. The department filed notice it will appeal. AP also reports the department escalated a criminal investigation with new grand jury subpoenas.

After Tuesday's vote the race was uncalled at the cutoff; NBC called it too early to call, and Sullivan said he was "confident when all the votes are counted." On Truth Social, President Trump said votes for Daniel J. Sullivan and candidate Gerald Heikes "should be immediately given to the REAL Dan Sullivan." Alaska uses ranked-choice voting: if no one tops 50%, last-place candidates are eliminated and their voters' next choices counted. A separate measure to repeal ranked-choice voting was too early to call in NBC's tally.

On October 22 the Justice Department sued Alaska's Division of Elections in federal court, asking it to block or delay certification of the U.S. Senate race if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses to Democrat Mary Peltola but would have won had the votes for a second candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. of Petersburg, gone to him. President Trump said he ordered the suit. The state's Department of Law answered that the suit "has no legal basis": the ballot labels the senator as the Republican incumbent, voters can rank both Sullivans, and probing voter intent would breach the secret ballot. Peltola's campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee moved to dismiss. Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski said the department "should have never filed this lawsuit."

On October 28, AP reported that The New York Times had obtained texts in which Peltola campaign members discussed recruiting people named Dan Sullivan. Trump said Peltola and the other Sullivan "should be prosecuted"; Murkowski said Alaskans "deserve the honest truth." Peltola's campaign says it "has no involvement with either Sullivan campaign," the DSCC denies involvement, and Dan J. Sullivan has long denied any contact with Peltola's campaign. Legal experts told AP the report won't change the lawsuit. Election Day is November 3.