UN Environment Programme: the world can no longer avoid overshooting 1.5°C of warming
UN News lays out the new Emissions Gap Report's numbers, including the cuts it says could still bring warming back down to 1.5°C by 2100.
What happened: The UN Environment Programme published its Emissions Gap Report 2026, titled "The Point of Return," on Oct. 21. It says warming will pass the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit and that this can no longer be avoided. It now describes a "lowest possible" overshoot path: peak warming of about 1.7 to 1.8°C around mid-century, then a return to 1.5°C by 2100. That path would need emissions cut 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025.
Why it matters: On current policies the report projects about 2.8°C of warming this century, or 2.6°C if every national pledge is met. UN News reports that both figures are worse than last year's, partly because the United States withdrew from the Paris deal.
How much agreement is there? Some disagreement. The science is widely accepted; the fight is over what to do next. UN Secretary-General António Guterres says "overshoot is not surrender" and is calling for faster clean energy and a fossil-fuel phase-out. Getting back to 1.5°C would also require removing about 320 billion tonnes of CO2 from the air by 2100, according to UNRIC's summary of the report.
Could someone help? Climate groups and young people can push for clearer national targets ahead of the COP31 climate talks in Antalya, Türkiye, which begin next month.
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Paris Agreement
After exploring Global warming will breach 1.5°C – but deep, fast cuts can still bring it back, the treaty that set the 1.5°C goal is Paris Agreement.
The 2015 climate treaty negotiated by 196 parties near Paris, covering mitigation, adaptation and finance. As of January 2026, 194 UNFCCC members are parties to it.
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