#cop31

What happened: The Lancet Countdown report, produced with the World Health Organization and led by University College London, estimated a record 710,000 heat-related deaths worldwide in 2023, UN News reported on Oct. 28. For the first time, more than seven in 10 of those deaths were attributed to human-caused climate change. The report tracks 54 indicators linking climate and health.

Why it matters: It finds extreme drought affected 51.8% of the world's land for at least a month in 2025, and conditions for dengue spread by one mosquito species rose 24% since the 1980s. It also says the 100 largest oil and gas companies plan to produce 150% more fossil fuels by 2040 than a 1.5°C path allows.

How much agreement is there? Some disagreement. The health trends are drawn from many research groups; the debate is over response. The authors want climate change formally declared a global health emergency before the COP31 talks, and they also note a record $2.1 trillion in clean-energy investment last year.

Could someone help? Communities and young volunteers can check on older or isolated neighbors during heat waves, and health groups can push for the national health adaptation plans the report tracks.

What happened: The UN Environment Programme published its Emissions Gap Report 2026, titled "The Point of Return," on Oct. 21. It says warming will pass the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit and that this can no longer be avoided. It now describes a "lowest possible" overshoot path: peak warming of about 1.7 to 1.8°C around mid-century, then a return to 1.5°C by 2100. That path would need emissions cut 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025.

Why it matters: On current policies the report projects about 2.8°C of warming this century, or 2.6°C if every national pledge is met. UN News reports that both figures are worse than last year's, partly because the United States withdrew from the Paris deal.

How much agreement is there? Some disagreement. The science is widely accepted; the fight is over what to do next. UN Secretary-General António Guterres says "overshoot is not surrender" and is calling for faster clean energy and a fossil-fuel phase-out. Getting back to 1.5°C would also require removing about 320 billion tonnes of CO2 from the air by 2100, according to UNRIC's summary of the report.

Could someone help? Climate groups and young people can push for clearer national targets ahead of the COP31 climate talks in Antalya, Türkiye, which begin next month.