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Crude prices dropped sharply in the first days of November. Oil fell more than 7% on Monday, November 2, after Washington and Tehran signaled openness to a settlement, and fell again Tuesday, with Brent settling at $103.60 and WTI at $96.09, CNBC reports. CNBC also cites a Wall Street Journal report that the US struck Iran's Qeshm Island on Monday as part of 'limited strikes' in recent weeks.

On Wednesday, after Democrats swept Congress, Vice President JD Vance posted 'The reason we lost is the war.' WTI fell 8.3% to $88.12 and Brent 8.7% to $94.62, leaving oil down more than 14% for the week. Analysts told CNBC the market now expects Trump to have a bigger incentive to make a deal; Trump told the Financial Times he had no immediate plans to strike Iran. Others warned the selloff may be overdone and that escalation risk remains, with ship attacks continuing in and around the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude rose 3.1% on October 23 to settle at $116.72 a barrel, its highest settlement since April 29, and gained 6.2% for the week, its third straight weekly rise. US West Texas Intermediate settled at $103.27. CNBC reports the move followed a New York Times report, citing US officials, that the US and Israel plan fresh strikes on Iran after the midterm elections, while Iran-allied Houthi militants kept attacking Saudi Arabia.

Prices eased early in the week, with Brent settling at $115.81 on October 26, then rose again on October 28 to $115.32 after The Wall Street Journal reported the US had told Gulf Arab countries to be ready for a short, intense campaign after the midterms. CNBC also reports the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stood at 282.6 million barrels, its lowest since 1982.

Brent crude rose 4% to settle at $113.17 a barrel on October 22, its highest close since May 4, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 2.4% to $99.47.

CNBC reports the jump followed a New York Times report, citing unnamed U.S. officials, that U.S. and Israeli militaries have drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after next month's midterm elections. President Trump told reporters the U.S. is not negotiating with Iran and that something will happen "fairly soon." The U.S. also ordered non-emergency government staff and families to leave Saudi Arabia, citing rising Houthi attacks; Saudi state media said at least two people were killed in an attack on Dammam's airport.

Yahoo Finance notes Brent is up more than 50% since the Iran war began in late February. One fund manager quoted by CNBC argues households are less exposed to oil shocks than decades ago.