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Oil falls more than 14% in a week as the US and Iran talk and Vance blames the war for midterm losses

CNBC's daily oil reports trace a fast reversal: from pricing in post-election strikes on Iran to betting on a deal.

Crude prices dropped sharply in the first days of November. Oil fell more than 7% on Monday, November 2, after Washington and Tehran signaled openness to a settlement, and fell again Tuesday, with Brent settling at $103.60 and WTI at $96.09, CNBC reports. CNBC also cites a Wall Street Journal report that the US struck Iran's Qeshm Island on Monday as part of 'limited strikes' in recent weeks.

On Wednesday, after Democrats swept Congress, Vice President JD Vance posted 'The reason we lost is the war.' WTI fell 8.3% to $88.12 and Brent 8.7% to $94.62, leaving oil down more than 14% for the week. Analysts told CNBC the market now expects Trump to have a bigger incentive to make a deal; Trump told the Financial Times he had no immediate plans to strike Iran. Others warned the selloff may be overdone and that escalation risk remains, with ship attacks continuing in and around the Strait of Hormuz.

Rabbit Holes 2
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Brent crude settles at a six-month high above $116 on reports of planned US strikes on Iran after the midterms

CNBC tracks the week's swings and the Houthi attacks on Saudi oil sites that keep a risk premium in prices.

Brent crude rose 3.1% on October 23 to settle at $116.72 a barrel, its highest settlement since April 29, and gained 6.2% for the week, its third straight weekly rise. US West Texas Intermediate settled at $103.27. CNBC reports the move followed a New York Times report, citing US officials, that the US and Israel plan fresh strikes on Iran after the midterm elections, while Iran-allied Houthi militants kept attacking Saudi Arabia.

Prices eased early in the week, with Brent settling at $115.81 on October 26, then rose again on October 28 to $115.32 after The Wall Street Journal reported the US had told Gulf Arab countries to be ready for a short, intense campaign after the midterms. CNBC also reports the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stood at 282.6 million barrels, its lowest since 1982.

Rabbit Holes 2