#wildfires

What happened: On Oct. 16, Brazil's space research institute INPE and its environment ministry released the PRODES estimates for August 2025 to July 2026. Amazon clearing fell to 3,335 km², down about 42% from 5,731 km² the year before. That is the lowest figure since monitoring began in 1988. The Cerrado savanna fell about 24% to 5,517 km², its lowest since its series began in 2001. Environment minister João Paulo Capobianco credited science-led policy and cooperation between governments.

Why it matters: In 2021, clearing in the Amazon reached more than 13,200 km², roughly four times this year's figure. Mongabay notes that the numbers land in the middle of Brazil's presidential runoff, so forest policy is on the ballot.

How much agreement is there? Some disagreement. The drop itself isn't disputed. Scientist Carlos Nobre called it "very positive." The open question is whether the forest is actually recovering. A Nature study led by INPE's Luciana Gatti, published the same week, estimates that from 2010 to 2024 fires made the Amazon release about 1.17 billion tonnes more CO2 a year than it absorbed. Gatti says the problem is human activity, made worse by drought.

Could someone help? The Nature study's authors call for halting deforestation, cutting fires and restoring forest; restoration and fire-prevention groups in the Amazon are where donors and volunteers can plug in.

Brazil's Amazonas state recorded 1,679 fires in the first two weeks of October, up 253% from the same period last year, according to the country's Amazon surveillance system, Reuters reports. At least 36 municipalities declared emergencies, outdoor events in Manaus were cancelled, and public schools there closed on Wednesday. Environment Minister João Paulo Capobianco, who flew over the area, said fires do not start on their own in the Amazon biome and blamed deliberate action, possibly to clear forest. Scientists point to an El Niño forecast to be among the strongest on record, and to climate change, for rains that have been slow to arrive.