During the 2023–24 El Niño, three-quarters of the world's tropical forests faced extreme heat and drought at the same time for an average of six months, according to a study led by Ghent University ecologist Johanna Van Passel that analyzed 12 datasets covering nearly 16 million square kilometers. Using 24 Earth system models, the team found that under a less optimistic emissions scenario, the record temperatures of 2023 and 2024 become the annual norm in most tropical regions by 2043. Drought projections vary more by region.