The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño is "firmly established and strengthening rapidly," with a near-100% likelihood it will last through February 2027, based on a consensus of 13 forecasting centers. Pacific sea-surface temperatures in the key Niño 3.4 region are forecast to average about 3.7°C above normal for October–December, peaking around December; that would beat the previous record of 2.6°C in late 2015. WMO expects above-average temperatures across much of the globe and shifted rainfall, raising drought and flood risks in different regions. Effects vary by region and are probabilities, not certainties.