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Moderna falls as much as 25% after partial cancer-vaccine data leaks, though full results look positive

CNBC explains the trial numbers and why analysts blame expectations, not the data.

Moderna shares dropped as much as 25% on October 22 after partial data on its melanoma vaccine with Merck leaked; Merck shares also fell, CNBC reports. Yahoo Finance said it put Moderna on pace for its worst day since its 2018 IPO.

The full phase 3 data, released later that day, showed the personalized vaccine, intismeran autogene, plus Merck's Keytruda cut the risk of recurrence or death by 42% versus Keytruda alone in certain high-risk patients. About 82% of patients on the combination were alive without recurrence after two years, versus 70% on Keytruda alone. The companies say it is too early to know whether it extends overall survival.

Analysts at BMO and UBS called the data strong and said the drop likely reflected inflated expectations. Detailed results are due at the European Society for Medical Oncology meeting this weekend.

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